Bitcoin could rally as exchange reserves fall, stablecoins gain in market cap

Bitcoin price wavered on Wednesday, Sept. 11, as traders reflected on the Donald Trump and Kamala Harris debate.

Bitcoin exchange reserves have dived

Bitcoin (BTC) retreated to $56,700 from this week’s high of $58,000 while Trump-themed tokens like MAGA (TRUMP) fell by over 10% in the last 24 hours.

Kamala Horris (KAMA) token by a smaller margin as traders estimated that Harris had a better night than Trump. Polymarket’s odds flipped in her favor, with a 50% chance of winning in November. 

Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are expected to perform well if Donald Trump wins the election, due to his support for the industry. He has hinted that he will replace Gary Gensler, maintain the Bitcoins in the government’s custody, and promote the U.S. as the crypto capital.

Meanwhile, spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen inflows for the last two consecutive days, signaling that investors have started to buy the dip. They added $116 million on Sept. 10 and $28 million a day earlier.

Another potential catalyst for Bitcoin is that reserves on exchanges have continued to fall. Data from CoinGlass shows that these reserves dropped to 2.35 million, the lowest level in years, significantly lower than the year-to-date high of over 2.71 million.

Falling Bitcoin reserves are a positive metric because they indicate that many holders are not selling. Recently, reserves rose in July and early August as the German government and Mt. Gox liquidated their holdings.

Falling BTC reserves are happening as the volume of stablecoins in reserves moves upward. Tether’s (USDT) market cap has risen to over $118 billion, while USD Coin (USDC) jumped to a record high of $35.2 billion.

A combination of falling Bitcoin reserves and rising stablecoin amounts is a sign that investors are waiting to buy. 

Bitcoin technical risk remain

Still, Bitcoin faces some major risks ahead. The most important risk is that the spread between the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages has continued to narrow, meaning that a death cross may happen. 

Historically, financial assets tend to dive sharply when this pattern happens. In Bitcoin’s case, the last death cross led to a 65% dive in 2022. 

Bitcoin also faces a major resistance, which is shown in the descending trendline that connects the highest swings since March this year. For a clear bullish breakout to happen, it will need to clear that resistance and the year-to-date high of $73,800.