Bitcoin to $180k? Expect a 30% correction, warns VanEck

VanEck’s head of digital asset research, Matthew Sigel, has outlined a detailed forecast for the cryptocurrency market through 2025.

Sigel predicted Friday that Bitcoin (BTC) will reach $180,000 in the first quarter before experiencing a correction. The analysis projects Ethereum (ETH) reaching beyond $6,000, while coins like Solana (SOL) and Sui (SUI) could achieve $500 and $10, respectively.

Sigel anticipates this initial peak will be followed by a market correction, with Bitcoin pulling back 30% and altcoins experiencing deeper declines of up to 60% during the summer months.

To identify potential market tops, Sigel highlights several key indicators for investors to monitor. The research points to sustained high funding rates as a crucial signal.

He noted that when traders consistently pay funding rates above 10% for three months or longer to bet on Bitcoin price increases, it typically indicates excessive speculation in the market.

The analysis also emphasizes the importance of tracking unrealized profits among Bitcoin holders. When a large proportion of holders maintain paper gains with a profit-to-cost ratio exceeding 70%, it often signals market euphoria.

Bitcoin’s market dominance serves as another critical indicator. Sigel warns that a drop below 40% could signal excessive speculation in altcoins, typical of late-cycle market behavior. 

The research attributes current market momentum largely to Donald Trump’s election victory and his administration’s projected appointments. The anticipated crypto-friendly leadership team, including JD Vance as VP and Paul Atkins as SEC Chair, suggests a shift from previous restrictive policies toward a framework that positions Bitcoin as a strategic asset.

Following the summer correction, Sigel forecasts a market recovery in fall 2025. Major cryptocurrencies will likely reclaim their previous all-time highs by year-end.

This projection assumes continued institutional adoption and supportive regulatory developments under the new administration.

This market outlook provides investors with specific price targets and warning signals to monitor, while acknowledging the impact of political developments on the crypto market.