Bloomberg analyst: 35% chance of spot Ethereum ETF approval by May

Experts are unsure whether spot Ethereum ETFs will be approved by May. 

Bloomberg ETF expert Eric Balchunas said on X that the likelihood of spot Ethereum (ETH) ETF applications being accepted by May is less than 50% due to the absence of telltale signs present before spot Bitcoin (BTC) ETFs were approved in January. Analysts previously predicted a 60% to 70% chance of approval by May.

Fox’s Eleanor Terrett also shared this sentiment, pointing out that the U.S. SEC has yet to engage issuers as it did for spot BTC ETF bids last year. 

Yeah our odds of eth ETF approval by May deadline are down to 35%. I get all the reasons they SHOULD approve it (and we personally believe they should) but all the signs/sources that were making us bullish 2.5mo out for btc spot are not there this time. Note: 35% isn't 0%, still… https://t.co/QWQOGZjDC5

— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) March 11, 2024

Variant Fund’s chief legal officer, Jake Chervinsky, shared similar remarks in a March 11 thread. According to the crypto lawyer, the securities watchdog could field new grounds for denial that were previously unestablished during the Grayscale court case. 

Chervinsky also opined that the SEC may revisit its stand on the correlation between spot and futures markets and insist that futures products offer sufficient exposure to crypto assets despite the Grayscale ruling. The legal veteran argued that the August 2023 verdict was not an “absolute judgment,” leaving room for the SEC to reuse similar tactics with new justifications.

To be clear, I’m not saying there’s *no* chance for a spot ETH ETF to be approved this year. I’m just saying that general sentiment in this early-mid bull market is overestimating the chance of approval given all of the political and strategic factors weighing against.

Jake Chervinsky, Variant Fund’s chief legal officer

Spot Ethereum ETF issuers left in limbo

Gary Gensler’s commission previously entered consistent talks with spot BTC ETF applications within 90 days of the deadline to approve or disapprove.

However, the 90-day window for spot Ethereum ETFs opened around Feb. 23, and the SEC has instead delayed decisions on multiple spot ETH ETF bids till May, with no apparent feedback to issuers on filing details.

Crypto.news did report possible meetings between SEC and issuers for spot Ethereum ETFs this month, citing sources first mentioned by Reuters. Coinbase has also urged the securities regulator to approve Grayscale’s bid to convert its Ethereum Trust into an ETF as a necessary move.