Coinbase sees floor forming not sooner than late Q2, warns of short-term weakness

Despite signs of long-term Bitcoin accumulation, Coinbase warns that near-term market weakness may persist until at least late Q2.

Coinbase analysts are taking a more cautious stance on the short-term crypto market, with expectations that the floor may not come into view until late Q2.

In a joint research report with blockchain analytics firm Glassnode, Coinbase analysts highlighted that while long-term Bitcoin (BTC) holders are steadily accumulating more coins, the exchange still foresees ongoing weakness before any potential rebound takes shape.

“Bitcoins’ liquid supply (coins moved within three months) decreased in 1Q25, which suggests long-term Bitcoin holders have begun steadily accumulating more BTC since the end of February as the price dropped below $90,000.”

Coinbase

Despite the accumulation, Coinbase stressed that a defensive approach might be needed in the near term, citing concerns about possible market downturns.

“We think a defensive stance on risk-taking may be warranted for the time being, but we still believe that crypto prices may be able to find their floor in mid-to-late 2Q25 — setting up a better 3Q25.”

Coinbase

According to the company, both Bitcoin and the COIN50 index — tracks the performance of the 50 largest cryptocurrencies by market cap — have recently broken below their respective 200-day moving averages, signaling bearish trends.

Looking ahead, Coinbase noted that should the Fed halt quantitative tightening, it could boost global liquidity and support crypto markets. However, the analysts also cautioned that ongoing uncertainties, especially regarding global trade and liquidity, might continue to weigh on sentiment.