Declining BTC whale ratio on Binance could signal market rebound, says analyst

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost suggests that Bitcoin’s recent downtrend may be nearing its end as selling pressure from large holders on Binance appears to be easing.

In a Mar.12 post on X, Darkfost highlighted a decline in Binance’s BTC whale ratio, which measures the share of the top 10 inflows relative to total inflows. Strong whale selling activity is indicated by a high ratio, which frequently causes brief corrections.

This metric’s recent downward trend, however, indicates that big holders are reducing their sell orders, which is typically an indication of an impending market recovery.

Bitcoin (BTC) has had a dramatic decline, dropping almost 30% from its all-time high in January and plunging to a four-month low of about $77,000 on Mar. 11. On-chain data, however, indicates that whale holdings have been growing.

Large holders have purchased almost 65,000 BTC in the last 30 days, according to a CryptoQuant post on X. This implies that current prices can be viewed as a favorable entry point by institutional investors.

The market has also been impacted by other influences. The recent announcement of a strategic Bitcoin reserve by the U.S. government appeared optimistic at first.  Later on, though, it became evident that these holdings would primarily come from seized assets rather than aggressive acquisitions.

This has increased investor uncertainty, as have record outflows from Bitcoin ETFs and macroeconomic worries like possible tariffs. Traditional markets, especially the NASDAQ, continue to have a strong influence on the price of bitcoin.

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes offered his take on the market in a Mar.11 post on X. He predicts that Bitcoin could bottom around $70,000, a 36% drop from its all-time high, before beginning its next rally. 

However, he argues that a true recovery will require more than just crypto market dynamics. According to Hayes, a downturn in the stock market is part of a larger financial shift that is required. 

As of now, the continuous accumulation by large investors and the declining whale ratio indicate that selling pressure is abating. Bitcoin, which is trading at $83,234 at the time of press, might be headed for a recovery if this pattern holds.