Kamala Harris surges ahead on Polymarket, Trump falters as traders bet big

Kamala Harris has seen a significant boost in her chances of winning the 2024 U.S. presidential election on Polymarket, while Donald Trump’s odds have tumbled.

As the 2024 U.S. presidential election approaches, the decentralized prediction market Polymarket has become a hotspot for traders speculating on the outcome.

Looking at the latest data from the platform, the chances of Democratic candidate Kamala Harris winning the election have jumped to 54%, while those of her Republican opponent Donald Trump have dropped dramatically from 72% to 44%.

The shift in market sentiment is not just a small blip; it’s backed by significant financial stakes. According to Polymarket, Vice President Harris now has $66.9 million riding on her victory, even though Trump still holds a larger share at $75.8 million, despite his declining odds.

Looking at individual players, one of the most notable bettors in this market is a trader going by the pseudonym “serus.” The trader holds the largest number of “Yes” shares for Harris, totaling 2,427,229 shares, with a value of approximately $1.31 million. Serus is currently sitting on an unrealized profit of $374,000.

Harris leads Polymarket as crypto support grows

While the Democratic candidate’s surge may have caught the attention of many, the Republican flag bearer still has a considerable following on Polymarket, with his largest backer, under the moniker “50-Pences,” holding 4,376,933 shares.

Elsewhere, in the popular vote predictions market, Harris is also leading with a 77% chance, compared to Trump’s 22%, showing a strong expectation that she might not only win the Electoral College but also secure a majority in the popular vote.

The uptick in Harris’ presidential probability comes hot on the heels of her campaign’s first virtual sit-down with representatives of the crypto industry. On Aug. 15, the Crypto4Harris initiative hosted a virtual town hall that was attended by the likes of Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, Senators Kirsten Gillibrand and Debbie Stabenow, and investor Mark Cuban.

At the event, Schumer announced that he intends to push for the passing of a bipartisan crypto bill before the end of the year, in a move critics see as intended to curry favor for the Democratic presidential candidate ahead of the November polls.