Prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi expect 79-89% chance of US TikTok ban: Trump to ‘review’ situation
Cryptocurrency prediction markets are showing strong odds that TikTok will face a ban in the U.S. by May 2025.
According to the latest information, leading platforms Polymarket and Kalshi both show a high probability of the ByteDance-owned app being shut down.
Polymarket’s data shows a 79% likelihood of a TikTok ban, with trading volume reaching $5.6 million. Similarly, Kalshi predicts an 89% probability, with $2.23 million in wagers. Both platforms have seen sharp increases in these probabilities since early January 2025.
The prediction markets operate similarly to stock exchanges, where users can purchase contracts based on real-world outcomes. In this case, traders will receive payouts if TikTok “is banned for download and/or use by the majority of Americans” before April 30.
The high trading volumes suggest strong market conviction in the likelihood of a ban.
The current situation stems from legislation that takes effect Sunday. However, President Biden has stated that he won’t enforce it during his final day in office. That means the incoming Trump administration will have the authority to extend the ban by 90 days upon taking office Monday.
The potential ban attracted the attention of several individuals, including prominent YouTuber MrBeast expressing interest in acquiring TikTok to prevent its ban.
In a recent tweet, he claimed to have received outreach from multiple billionaires regarding a potential acquisition effort. However, the practicality of such a move remains unclear.
“Shark Tank” host Kevin O’Leary and former Los Angeles Dodgers owner Frank McCourt also expressed interest in buying the platform’s U.S. operations.
The prediction markets’ high confidence in a ban shows growing concerns about TikTok’s future in the U.S. Trump also recently spoke to Chairman Xi Jinping of China and discussed various topics, including TikTok.
Trump also posted on Truth Social that the Supreme Court decision of upholding the TikTok sale-or-ban law was expected.
“My decision on TikTok will be made in the not too distant future, but I must have time to review the situation,” Trump stated.
