Polymarket: Trump announcing a strategic Bitcoin reserve unlikely

Polymarket bettors do not seem confident that Trump will announce a U.S. Bitcoin strategic reserve. 

With Bitcoin 2024 starting this week, all eyes are on Former President Donald Trump to see what comments he makes about Bitcoin (BTC) and the crypto industry in general. 

Among the speculation, Polymarket bettors are betting on whether Trump will announce plans for a U.S. Bitcoin strategic reserve at the conference. 

The specific bet will turn affirmative if Donald Trump announces the “creation of a U.S. strategic reserve of Bitcoin upon becoming president” by the end of July 28. The primary source for this bet will be official recordings or transcripts of any such speech at the conference.

If Trump does not mention a reserve plan at the conference, the bet will not be successful. Currently, there is only a 22% chance that Trump will announce a reserve by July 28.

When the bet was first created, bettors believed there was a 76% chance that Trump would make such an announcement.

Trump creating a Bitcoin strategic reserve

Rumors started circulating on social media last week suggesting that Trump might announce Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset for the United States during the talk. 

These speculations started with Dennis Porter, co-founder of the Satoshi Act, who claims credible sources confirm Trump’s intentions. Porter’s tweet started a firestorm of speculation that lasted over the weekend but has since lost traction since Biden announced stepping down from the U.S. presidential race.

If the United States were to adopt Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset, it could leverage its position as the largest nation-state holder of Bitcoin and echo Trump’s sentiment that all remaining Bitcoin should be mined in the United States. 

A Bitcoin strategic reserve asset would involve the U.S. Treasury holding significant amounts of Bitcoin as part of its reserve portfolio, similar to how they already do with gold or foreign currencies.