VanEck: Bitcoin Could Hit $4.8M if it Replaces Fiat Currencies

VanEck, an investment firm, has made a very high BTC and gold valuation based on the extremities that get the title of a global reserve currency. The firm believes that Bitcoin (BTC) has double the upside of gold. 

Gold and Bitcoin Valuations from a Monetary Perspective

The financial entity believes BTC could be worth as much as $4.8 million per coin if it becomes the global reserve asset. That’s a big “if,” and VanEck thinks the Chinese yuan is a more likely contender.

Eric Fine, the head of active EM debt at VanEck, and Natalia Gurushina, the chief economist at VanEck, compared the price implications of adopting Bitcoin and gold as global currencies. According to the analysis, the implied price of Bitcoin ranged between $1.3 million and $4.8 million. The lower estimate was based on BTC’s monetary base(MO), which includes all circulating bank deposits and currency but is not a standard marker for economists to look at.

The higher prediction was made using the M2 assessment, which measures the money supply and includes all deposits with a currency and its ability to be converted into cash.

In their assessment of the gold price, Fine and Gurushina leaned toward the M0 prediction of $31,000 as a starting point. A vast number of central banks have no or little reserve gold. Hence, the lack of deposits undermines this estimate and makes it less reliable than $105,000 per ounce of gold.

Ukraine-Russia War and its Contribution to Crypto

Ukraine has gathered millions of dollars in donations from the crypto community to help its people. At the moment, the total amount of money raised for the invaded country exceeds $100 million. Notably, numerous analysts claim that the crisis in Ukraine has sped the former Soviet state’s adoption of Web3 apps built on blockchain and cryptocurrency platforms.

On the other hand, Russia is thinking about utilizing alternative currencies, including Bitcoin, to transact for oil with “friendly” allies, China and Turkey. The tendency might spread to other central banks worldwide, undermining the US dollar’s dominance. Fine and Gurushina feel that the Chinese yuan is the best bet for a new reserve currency, but governments will likely reshuffle their holdings.

Bitcoin Halving and Mining Effects on Bitcoin

Bitcoin has a maximum supply of 21 million tokens. As of 31 March 2022, 18.9 million BTC are in circulation, almost hitting 19 million. As we approach this, the mining difficulty keeps increasing as it is updated every two weeks. 

Meanwhile, to reduce the number of new bitcoins issued to users, the cryptocurrency undergoes a series of events known as halving. These events reduce the supply of new bitcoins by half, making the token more valuable.

Although halving events can create excitement in the crypto community, they do not necessarily lead to a surge in bitcoin price. However, the past halvings have brought about lower prices, surging after that, causing the price to skyrocket.

The cost of mining bitcoin remains the same, but its revenues go down by about half. Many miners decide that it is no longer feasible to continue mining. They then leave the network and use their rigs for other cryptocurrencies.

The next Bitcoin halving is scheduled for 2024. According to Joe Burnett of Blockware Solutions, this event will help boost the cryptocurrency’s price in the long run. It will also make bitcoin more scarce as market participants look for ways to preserve their wealth.

Bitcoin Drops to 45K

After briefly dropping below support, Bitcoin has rallied as it gets into April. As data shows, the month is typically a strong month for the cryptocurrency in seven out of the past ten years.

According to Asaf Naim, the spike in Bitcoin’s price could be linked to the start of spring. It’s also possible that the phenomenon is a psychological phenomenon. “After the bullish trend of mid-January until the end of February (that includes the aftermath of Christmas and the Chinese New Year) comes a downturn, which later changes to a bull run in early April,” he added.

Bitcoin fell to $44,200 on Thursday night after reaching a two-month high of $48,000 on Wednesday. Currently, the top crypto is trading at around $46,300.