XRP price tests $1.06 as open interest hits six month low

XRP extended its decline on Aug. 5, 2026, trading near $1.07 as buyers struggled to move the token away from its lower range.

crypto.news data showed XRP down about 0.9% over 24 hours, with trading volume near $911.7 million and market capitalization around $66.7 billion. XRP remained the sixth largest cryptocurrency.

The decline left XRP close to the $1.05 to $1.06 area that has repeatedly attracted buyers since late June. However, momentum indicators, spot flows and derivatives positioning offer little evidence of a confirmed recovery.

The current setup is not a typical liquidation collapse. Leverage has declined, funding remains close to neutral and liquidations have been relatively balanced. These conditions may reduce the risk of an immediate forced selloff, but they also show that traders have limited conviction in a rebound.

XRP price remains trapped near its lower range

The supplied XRP/USDT daily chart shows a broad decline from above $2.50 to around $1.0676. Recent candles have formed a narrow consolidation close to the bottom of that move. XRP has not established a sustained recovery above $1.10, leaving the short term structure weak.

The relative strength index stood at 43.71, below both the neutral 50 level and its moving average of 44.87. The reading shows that buying momentum remains limited, although XRP has not entered deeply oversold territory on the daily chart.

MACD also remains mildly bearish. The MACD line was near negative 0.0110, below the signal line around negative 0.0101. The histogram remained slightly negative at about negative 0.0009. The small difference between the lines points to weak downside momentum rather than a sharp acceleration.

The immediate technical test sits between $1.05 and $1.06. A daily close below that range could expose the psychological $1 level and the late June lows around $1.01. XRP briefly broke the $1.05 area on July 28 before buyers returned. The earlier decline also pushed the four hour RSI into oversold territory, but that reading did not create a lasting reversal.

A recovery above $1.10 would provide the first evidence that buyers are regaining control. XRP would then need to clear the $1.13 to $1.15 region, which has repeatedly limited advances since June.

Analyst Ali Charts described $1.06 as the deciding level. His upside estimates of “$1.35 and $1.64” depend on XRP holding support and confirming a recovery. His downside levels of “$0.80 and potentially $0.62” require a clear breakdown. Neither path has been confirmed.

Other social media forecasts calling for “$23” or “$50+” are highly speculative. Those targets sit far above the current price and are not supported by present momentum, verified institutional forecasts or an established breakout structure.

Lower leverage points to a quiet positioning reset

CoinGlass data showed XRP futures volume near $1.35 billion and total derivatives open interest around $2.25 billion at the time of reporting. The price on the platform stood near $1.067. The supplied data snapshot showed volume falling 10.27% and open interest declining 5.59% over 24 hours.

Falling price and falling open interest usually mean traders are closing positions rather than adding aggressive new shorts. This can reduce the fuel available for large liquidation driven moves. It does not, however, establish that spot buyers are ready to take control.

A separate CryptoQuant analysis found that its XRP open interest measure had fallen into a six month range low between 362 million and 369 million. The estimated leverage ratio also declined toward 0.139 to 0.142, close to the lowest reading during the same period.

CryptoQuant contributor CryptoOnchain also noted that funding remained between roughly negative 0.009 and positive 0.010 during the latest decline. Long and short liquidations alternated rather than producing a one sided cascade. The analyst interpreted the structure as a positioning reset rather than forced capitulation.

Network valuation also compressed faster than reported transaction activity. CryptoOnchain said the network value to transactions ratio fell 42.7% compared with its three month average, while transaction count declined 23.3%. This may indicate that market valuation weakened faster than ledger usage, but it does not provide a reliable timing signal for a price reversal.

The supplied CoinGlass spot flow chart recorded a net outflow of about $2.15 million on Aug. 5. Recent negative readings have been smaller than the large outflow spikes recorded in late 2025. Selling pressure appears less intense, but sustained positive flow would offer stronger evidence that demand is improving.

U.S. XRP demand has not produced a breakout

U.S. spot XRP exchange traded funds have continued attracting capital despite weak price performance. Recent flow data reportedly showed four consecutive inflow sessions totaling about $15.4 million. 

XRP nevertheless remained near $1.08 during that period, showing that the purchases were not large enough to overcome selling elsewhere in the market.

As crypto.news reported in an earlier analysis, five U.S. spot XRP funds launched between November and December 2025 and had attracted roughly $1.5 billion by mid 2026. The funds created a new regulated source of demand, but XRP remained confined to a range around $1.00 to $1.13.

This divergence suggests that ETF inflows alone have not been enough to change the wider trend. Fund purchases must compete with token sales, exchange activity, derivatives hedging and weaker demand across offshore spot markets.

Regulated derivatives activity provides another U.S. market signal. CME Group data showed activity across its standard XRP futures contracts, while the settlement page listed prior day open interest of 6,894 contracts. CME contract data cannot be compared directly with CoinGlass totals because the products use different contract sizes and reporting methods.

The legal risk surrounding Ripple has also changed. The SEC and Ripple dismissed their appeals in August 2025. The district court’s final judgment remained in force, including a $125.04 million penalty and an injunction concerning future registration violations. The dismissal removed the active appeal, but it did not erase the court’s findings involving Ripple’s institutional sales. The SEC litigation release confirms that status.

Wider U.S. legislation remains unresolved. The CLARITY Act has reached the Senate calendar, but it still requires sufficient floor support, reconciliation with other legislative text and presidential approval. Seven Democratic senators said in July that the Republican proposal still fell short on several matters, and no final Senate vote had been confirmed by Aug. 5.

A confirmed vote or renewed delay could influence sentiment toward XRP and other U.S. traded digital assets. It would not, by itself, guarantee a sustained price move.

Ripple developments have not changed near term momentum

Ripple announced strategic investments in ZILO and Licuido on Aug. 3. The companies plan to add transfer agency, token issuance, trading and collateral tools to Ripple’s institutional infrastructure on the XRP Ledger. Ripple did not disclose the investment amounts or financial targets. The official company announcement described RLUSD as a settlement asset for tokenized fund transactions.

As crypto.news reported in related coverage, the investments support Ripple’s broader move into tokenized capital markets. They have not yet produced disclosed revenue, transaction volume or XRP demand that can be tied directly to the token’s price.

The XRP Ledger also faced a validator manifest flood in late July. Developers released xrpld version 3.2.1 to restrict the processing and storage of untrusted manifests. The ledger continued closing normally, and no confirmed loss of funds or altered transactions was reported. Node operators were urged to install the update.

The next price signal will likely come from the market itself. Traders will watch whether XRP can hold $1.05, reclaim $1.10 and build stronger volume above $1.15. Open interest should also stabilize without price making new lows. Continued ETF inflows would be more constructive if they coincide with positive spot flows and stronger momentum.

A break below $1.05 would keep $1.00 exposed. A confirmed daily recovery above $1.15 would weaken the immediate bearish structure. Until either event occurs, XRP remains in a low conviction range with reduced leverage and limited bullish confirmation.

FAQs