Arthur Hayes predicts Bitcoin will hit $110K-$200K when U.S. Treasury buybacks kick in
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, believes upcoming U.S. Treasury bond buybacks could inject major liquidity into markets and send Bitcoin to $110,000, or even as high as $200,000.
In an Apr. 23 Substack article, Hayes pointed to the Treasury’s plan to issue new debt to repurchase older, less liquid bonds, commonly called off-the-run Treasuries. These bonds don’t trade as frequently, so buying them back could help smooth out the bond market while offering arbitrage opportunities for institutional investors.
Hayes points out that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will probably rely more on bond issuance and buybacks to maintain market stability, given the widening U.S. deficits and declining tax revenue. According to Hayes, this mechanism will function similarly to quantitative easing, which is a strategy used by central banks to boost the money supply and stimulate the economy.
However, in this instance, liquidity conditions are being essentially eased by the U.S. Treasury rather than the Federal Reserve. He argues that by lowering the yields on older bonds, this buyback strategy will encourage investors to look for higher returns in riskier assets, such as cryptocurrencies.
At the same time, when bond markets become less volatile, investors will feel safer borrowing money to make bigger bets. This extra buying power can lead to larger price swings in riskier assets like Bitcoin (BTC), pushing prices up faster when as markets rise.
Hayes points out that this pattern is similar to what occurred in late 2022 when a strong Bitcoin rally was fueled by growing market liquidity. He believes most investors are too focused on when the Fed will cut interest rates, overlooking the fact that the central bank has already slowed its quantitative tightening, which means it’s easing conditions behind the scenes.
If liquidity keeps flowing, Bitcoin could reach $110,000 and then surge toward $200,000, Hayes predicted. And once BTC breaks that level, altcoins may see an even bigger surge as investors rotate into higher-risk assets.
