Gemini wins CFTC approval for prediction markets

Gemini has received approval for prediction markets in the U.S., with GEMI stock jumping after the news.

Gemini has secured approval for a Designated Contract Market license, clearing the way for the exchange to bring regulated prediction markets to U.S. users for the first time.

The exchange announced on Dec. 10 that its affiliate, Gemini Titan LLC, received a DCM license from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission after a five-year review. The approval allows the company to offer event-based contracts to U.S. customers via its web platform, with mobile support to follow.

Gemini will compete in a growing prediction-market industry

The license lets users trade simple yes-or-no markets tied to future outcomes, such as whether a price level will be reached or whether a corporate or political event will occur. Gemini chief executive officer Tyler Winklevoss called the decision the end of a long application process, framing it as a shift toward a more supportive regulatory stance in Washington.

President Cameron Winklevoss added that the CFTC’s current leadership has opened the door for U.S. firms to compete in rapidly growing prediction markets overseas. With the license in place, Gemini enters a space currently led by Kalshi, which also runs CFTC-regulated prediction markets.

The approval gives Gemini access to a sector that analysts estimate has crossed $3.5 billion in annualized activity, driven by trading tied to elections, economic data, sports outcomes, and digital-asset milestones.

Future expansion plan and Gemini stock performance

The company plans to expand beyond event contracts after launch. Gemini Titan is researching regulated cryptocurrency derivatives products for US clients, including futures, options, and perpetual swaps.

Although they are still restricted in the U.S., perpetuals are the most popular derivatives tool in the world’s cryptocurrency markets. If approved in the future, these offerings could improve liquidity for U.S. traders and introduce regulated versions of products that are widely used offshore.

Shares of Gemini Space Station Inc. (NASDAQ: GEMI) rose 13.7% in after-hours trading to roughly $12.92 on the news. The stock is still down more than 60% this year, but the move reflects investor relief after prolonged regulatory delays.

The approval follows other recent steps by the company, such as expanding its RLUSD stablecoin to the XRP Ledger. Observers see the DCM license as another sign that crypto firms are regaining regulatory traction after years of uncertainty.

Gemini says prediction markets will go live “shortly,” with further details on derivatives still under review.