What will the price of Hamster Kombat tokens be at launch?

With Hamster Kombat preparing for its token launch at the end of July, the big question is: what will the token’s price be at launch? Given its 250 million user base, the potential impact on the token’s value is significant.

Despite the hype surrounding Hamster Kombat, critical details about its tokenomics remain undisclosed. Bybit already listed HMSTR in its pre-market phase and has speculated a total supply of 10 billion tokens for initial valuation purposes. However, this number is still uncertain and could change depending on when the project officially reveals more information.

Some may think that HMSTR tokens will correspond directly to the user’s coin balance, but in reality, the system will take into account the player’s activity and hourly revenue to incentivize gameplay. Hence, the next step involves a detailed analysis of Hamster Kombat to project its supply and approximate token price at launch.

Hamster Kombat features a tiered ranking system. These include Bronze, Silver, Gold, Platinum, Diamond, Epic, Legendary, Master, Grandmaster, and Lord. Additionally, there is an eleventh rank designated for the creators of the game called Creator. In our assessment, the distribution of Hamster Kombat’s user base is structured as follows:

We assumed that the distribution of users across the ranks is such that higher ranks have fewer users. We then examined the revenue data for the top 100 users in each rank. For instance, in the Bronze rank, the top user earns 33,612 coins per hour, while the 100th user earns 8,189 coins per hour. Using this data, we calculated the average revenue of the top 100 users in each rank. This gave us an idea of the earnings at the higher end of each rank.

To estimate the average revenue for all users within each rank, we assumed that users beyond the top 100 earn progressively less. We approximated this average by considering it to be roughly half of the average revenue of the top 100 users. This adjustment accounts for the decrease in earnings as we move down the ranks.

With the estimated average revenue for each rank and the number of users in each rank, we calculated the total revenue for each rank. By summing up the total revenue for all ranks, we estimated that the total hourly revenue for all users in Hamster Kombat is approximately 21.89 trillion coins.

In case the team at Hamster Kombat chooses to distribute tokens such that 1 HMSTR equals 1 coin per hour of revenue, the total supply would be 21.89 trillion HMSTR tokens. Given the extensive user base, we can assume that the market capitalization might reach approximately $2 billion. This market cap would place the token at the top spot in the gaming category, according to CoinMarketCap.

With a market cap of $2 billion, the price per token would be calculated by dividing $2 billion by 21.89 trillion HMSTR tokens. This gives a token price of approximately $0.0000913 per HMSTR.

However, if the distribution model is set such that 1 HMSTR equals 10,000 coins per hour of revenue, the total supply would be significantly reduced. In this scenario, the total supply of tokens would be 21.89 trillion coins divided by 10,000, which equals approximately 2.189 billion HMSTR tokens.

Given the same market cap of $2 billion, the price per token would then be calculated by dividing $2 billion by 2.189 billion HMSTR tokens. This would result in a token price of approximately $0.914 per HMSTR.

At the moment of writing, in Bybit’s pre-market trading, the floor price is $0.001, and the maximum price is $1.00, with the last traded price being $0.225. However, it is essential to consider that these are pre-market prices, and our estimate is only a projection. It does not necessarily reflect the prices at which readers will be able to buy or sell when the token finally launches.

Once the token gets listed, many players will likely sell their tokens, leading to a significant inflow of sell orders. Although some users may play for fun, a large number will aim to convert their earnings to cash, driving the price down. This initial surge of sell orders will likely create downward pressure on the price, potentially causing it to drop below pre-market levels within minutes, hours, or days after the launch. We assume that the price could go down by about 50%, which would result in a price of approximately $0.457 per HMSTR and a market cap of around $1 billion, assuming the distribution rate of 10,000 coins per hour equals 1 HMSTR.