Polymarket taps Nate Silver as advisor ahead of US election

Polymarket, a leading blockchain-based prediction market, has appointed Nate Silver, a well-known statistician, as an advisor.

This appointment shows Polymarket’s swift rise, as it currently accommodates 80% of the wagers on U.S. elections.

Silver is also a writer and journalist who aims to help Polymarket build its forecasting around news events.

“I grew up following Nate’s work on election forecasting and it’s a dream come true to welcome him to Polymarket’s advisory board,” said Shayne Coplan, founder and CEO of Polymarket. “Over the course of his career Nate has played a pivotal role in mainstreaming political forecasting. This election cycle, Polymarket has emerged as the key destination for election forecasts, and Nate’s guidance will be critical in helping us take our offering to the next level.”

Axios was the first to report this news on Tuesday.

Polymarket

Founded in 2020 by Shayne Coplan, Polymarket allows users to wager on various outcomes, with a notable focus on U.S. presidential elections. The platform has seen over $262 million in bets on the 2024 presidential race, with users currently favoring former President Donald Trump. 

Despite its success, Polymarket is not accessible to U.S. users due to Commodity Futures Trading Commission restrictions. The company conducts all trades internationally and is currently looking into introducing a regulated product in the U.S. So far, Polymarket has overseen more than $400 million in trades this year, with substantial activity during the first presidential debate.

Trump’s popularity on Polymarket surged to over 70% following a recent assassination attempt, a figure he frequently highlights on Truth Social.

Polymarket, backed by $70 million in venture capital from investors like Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund, is growing in the prediction market space. 

Who is Nate Silver?

Silver, renowned for his accurate 2008 election forecasts on FiveThirtyEight, believes prediction markets will become essential tools for investors assessing news and predicting future outcomes. 

He emphasizes the importance of probabilities in decision-making, citing the current debate within the Democratic Party about President Joe Biden’s re-election bid. While advising Polymarket, Silver will also continue his work on his Substack newsletter and a new book project.